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Vinum Fine Wine Market Report September 2026
This month at a glance
- Legendary US investor Dr. Michael Burry has publicly made the case for fine wine as a long-term tangible asset, as AI, quantum computing and currency debasement put digital and fiat assets at risk.
- August 2026 turnover at Vinum finished nearly 15% ahead of August 2025, and the Liv-ex indices had their best month in a while (Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 +0.7%).
- Penfolds Grange 2022 has been the star of the September La Place de Bordeaux releases, with Liv-ex reporting Grange trade across all vintages up 200% year to date.
- Burgundy (55%), Bordeaux (19%) and Champagne (12%) were Vinum’s most traded regions, with a surge in big-ticket names including DRC, Rousseau and Coche-Dury.
What Michael Burry said about fine wine
As I was putting the finishing touches to this report, legendary US investor, Dr. Michael Burry, dropped a post in his Substack account relating, of all things, to the fine wine market!
People like him do not normally discuss the wine market, so this is big news for our sleepy little corner of the investment world. Not that it is an investment, of course, it’s only a drink.
Dr. Burry was first made famous by Michael Lewis’ excellent book ‘The Big Short’, which, in turn, became a Hollywood blockbuster with an all-star cast – I strongly recommend both, by the way.
Fortunately, in the film version, for those who do not understand the Wall Street jargon, Margot Robbie’s character explains all, in layman’s terms, whilst sipping Champagne in her bubble bath.
Burry accurately called the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the U.S., the precursor of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. He short sold investment vehicles exposed to this market making himself, and his investors, hundreds of millions of dollars (it would have been billions, but some people lost faith in the strategy and bailed out early).
He is known for his in-depth research, and a stubborn belief in his theories, which are often contrarian to popular opinion. Obviously, he does not call everything correctly, and sometimes the timing can be challenging, but he is clear thinking and far more analytical than most.
You can read Burry’s full article on Substack, which is behind a paywall, but there is a decent summary in his post on X.
He is at pains to tell us this is a long-term investment, which it is, and all the usual caveats, but he’s calling it strongly, nonetheless.
I will attempt to play the Margot Robbie character from here.
He starts his argument by saying that at some point in the not-too-distant future AI and Quantum Computing will put all our digital assets at risk by being able to hack into our digital wallets and blockchain. This is not just cryptocurrencies, but bank accounts, investment accounts, pensions and so forth.
Also, the vast federal debt interest payments will continue to put pressure on the US$ and will continue to weaken its credibility as a foreign reserve (gold is now the second largest asset of the U.S. by the way), leading to a long-term devaluation. This is not contained to the US dollar; it applies to all fiat (government issued) currencies.
These two points above will make physical, tangible assets much more attractive globally, as traditional asset values weaken. Gold has already been a massive beneficiary of this rationale, wine has not.
I looked at Gold vs. the Liv-ex 100 (the leading benchmark index for fine wine prices) back in February and the divergence in performance, having been so similar for such a long time, is now a little bit wider.
Gold vs Liv-ex 100 rebased from end 2001
Gold and the Liv-ex 100 tracked each other closely for almost two decades, but gold has pulled sharply ahead since 2023: up c.930% since the end of 2001, against c.245% for the Liv-ex 100.
Burry’s investment case for fine wine
- wine is a physical asset, priced in different currencies
- the fine wine market has retraced c.30% from its highs (2022) and has stabilised
- fine wine has a finite supply; there will be no more Petrus 1990 ever made
His arguments are made from a U.S. standing but the points remain very largely the same. He makes the case for bonded European storage which we would, rather obviously, agree with.
He names Domaine de la Romanée-Conti (DRC), Château Margaux, Mouton Rothschild and Petrus and talks about first growths, in generic terms, a lot. He asserts a high level of selectivity to be crucial, and I agree strongly on this.
The timing of this call is interesting, however. I suspect the thesis will gain some traction, particularly in the U.S., where he has a huge following.
Fine wine market performance, August 2026
Unless you are in the deck chair or sun cream business, August is usually a pretty tricky month in most lines of work. Sure enough, the month started slowly but finished with a flourish. Trading in the final week, ahead of the bank holiday, notched similar figures to the first half of the month and all told, we finished nearly 15% ahead of last year’s August.
The indices put in a positive performance, the best we’ve seen in a while, so as we head into the last third of the year there’s a little more optimism around the traps.
In August 2026 the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 rose 0.7%, the Fine Wine 50 0.6% and the Fine Wine 1000 0.5%. The Liv-ex 100 is up 1.1% year to date and 4.4% over one year.
It was a good month for most of the regional indices too, particularly Champagne. Rosés in general and the 2008 vintage performing well; Salon and Louis Roederer Cristal too.
DRC and Domaine Armand Rousseau performed well in Burgundy with a supporting role played by Clos de Tart.
Italy was a bit of a mixed bag, even with a +0.7% posting, but Giacomo Conterno Monfortino appears to be on its way back.
Regional indices:
Champagne 50 led the Liv-ex regional indices in August with +1.4%, followed by Burgundy 150 and Italy 100 (both +0.7%). California 50 (-0.2%) and Rhône 100 (-0.3%) slipped, while Rest of the World 60 was flat.
Fine wine market outlook for autumn 2026
With positive indices and turnover picking up, and with people back at their desks, the wine world is doing its best to be optimistic, notably Liv-ex, despite the considerable headwinds. They solidly argue that the wine market, after (U.K.) inflation adjustment, has fallen to 2015 levels – interesting, for sure, although headwinds remain.
As I write, Brent oil is back over $100 a barrel, Barclays have upped UK mortgage rates by 0.2%, global bond markets are in trouble and inflation worries loom again.
The Ukraine situation seems to get worse, not better, whichever of Mr. Trump’s relatives are sent in to appease Mr. Putin. Same but different in the Middle East.
There is still huge pressure on the middle ground throughout the world, but at the finer end of the spectrum, all appears to be well. One Champagne trader we know had a fantastic August with double the turnover of 2025.
Bid/offer ratios, particularly for older Bordeaux, have continued to rise and the percentage of trades initiated by buyers has continued to increase this year.
September 2026 releases from La Place de Bordeaux: Grange, Opus One, Masseto and Palmer
As we all know, the September season of releases from La Place de Bordeaux is not as it once was – what is? (La Place is the Bordeaux négociant network through which the châteaux, and a growing number of international estates, release their wines to merchants worldwide.)
In brief, Masseto struggled in the U.K. but worked well elsewhere; being released the day after the long weekend in the U.K., and a day when many are returning to their desks for the first time in a while, did not help us.
Opus One was only ok for us, despite the huge scores and coming from Napa’s brilliant ’23 vintage, but it appears to have worked better elsewhere.
Château Palmer 2016 is working well in large formats – large format Bordeaux has been a feature for us this year – but the premium for the ex-Chateau bottle price is proving challenging.
The star of the show, so far, has been Penfolds Grange 2022. The 100-point score from Julie Sheppard of Decanter magazine, and 99 from Wine Advocate would have helped, but it seems there is more attention finding its way towards this Aussie icon these days. Liv-ex have reported trade across all vintages is up 200% so far this year over the same period of last year.
Prices of Grange have come back a fair bit (again, what hasn’t?) in the last few years and are a way off their release price RRPs (but that’s for another conversation, and not here!), but there seems to be something else afoot. According to The Australian (newspaper) it’s because Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), which owns Penfolds, has kept the price constant, as opposed to raising it, at AUD1,000 (£600) a bottle – give me strength!
It may have more to do with Penfolds’ collaboration with international streetwear icon NIGO, and the bottle neck tag with matching bandana that comes with a purchase, but I doubt it somehow! I’m not sure what the answer is but Go Grange – good on ya mate!
International Releases and prices
Obviously, international wines like Grange, Opus One, Almaviva, Sena and the like have different markets to satisfy, for tastings, pricing, and release dates, which can produce issues.
Slightly strangely, timing-wise, there’s a big trade tasting in London for the September releases, organised by one of the big négociants, on the 10th September, nearly two weeks after the releases started.
Grange was released in Australia a month before the rest of the world, with tasting notes and ratings from some of the most notable global critics still not available.
Pricing can present more complex problems to navigate. For example, Opus One has a huge following in Japan and when international pricing was being discussed at Opus HQ, the Japanese ¥ was 8% lower year on year, automatically making a huge difference for the Japanese buyer.
Opus want their wine to sell where it is supposed to be sold, but maybe trying to find one price fits all is not the solution. Obviously, that would not suit the distribution system of La Place, which works from one designated euro-based price.
This calls into question whether La Place is the best distribution system for these wines. Bibi Graetz obviously thinks not – Colin Hay’s interesting Drinks Business interview with Bibi Graetz about leaving La Place – but you could argue his profile never really fitted the bill in the first place. (I happened to find his wines amongst the most interesting at the Beyond Bordeaux tasting last year).
In a proper bull market, it’s a great system, but, then again, what wouldn’t be?
At the moment there appears to be a disconnect between the producers and the end users and the market is not strong enough to bridge the gap. It’s hard work but for the producers and the various parts of the supply chain, more shoe leather is required!
Michelin Guide’s new Bordeaux wine awards
It doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Michelin Stars, does it? And I don’t think it ever will. Michelin acquired the Wine Advocate some time ago and I believe is largely using the knowledge of the wine critics there to create an extra marketing angle.
Indeed, some of their awards and rankings have raised a few eyebrows already.
There are certainly no site visits by anonymous inspectors, and they are hardly likely to make any discoveries.
Anyway, their Bordeaux awards are out, and you can browse the Michelin Guide’s Bordeaux wine selection.
If they bring foodies and travellers to the wine world who weren’t already invested, that’s fantastic, but otherwise, I think this is a non-story.
What’s trading at Vinum: September 2026
Within our most traded regions, namely Burgundy (55%), Bordeaux (19%) and Champagne (12%), there was a broader range of producer names than we have seen of late, but within the smaller markets it was the big names, and thus big tickets, only. Penfolds was the only Australian brand represented, for example.
We are experiencing a bit of a surge in big ticket items, maybe people have been reading Dr. Burry? DRC as usual, but Rousseau is back in business, Coche-Dury is flying out the door, and there’s been some action in big ticket Piedmont too.
Margot and I will drink to that!
Miles Davis, 16th September 2026
