Vinum Fine Wines Market Report January 2026

A brief recap of 2025 and what to expect in 2026.

Firstly, the fine wine market December performance

Although December was quiet in the fine wine trade, it normally is, the Liv-ex 100 and 1000 indices were flat to positive. It was only the Investables of these three indices, comprised purely of top Bordeaux, that was negative.

The regional markets

Our regional breakdown in turnover for December, and for 2025

Top end Burgundy dominated our 2025 trading, progressively as the year went on, while Bordeaux and Italy slipped towards the end. The Rhône was dominated by high volume sales of Château Rayas in December.

What happened in 2025

2025 started promisingly with some good secondary market activity and a moderately successful Burgundy ’23 en primeur campaign, from a decent size crop.

Mr. Trump and his tariffs came along in March to spoil all that.

Bordeaux ’24 en primeur, from a terribly wet vintage, was a damp squib in general but we managed to sell a fair chunk, in a limited number of names.

Despite (costly) monumental efforts in the vineyards and cellars, and some better-than-expected quality, there was inadequate effort made on pricing by too many Châteaux.

The summer was quiet before September brought us the beginnings of some more positive data. Liv-ex indices began to turn a little after three years of downturn, and the bid to offer ratio on their exchange also started to tick up.

In November, various members of the team visited Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Manila and Singapore and were encouraged by their meetings.

Demand from that part of the world was obviously picking up, but remains the most price-sensitive trading region. For more on that please see my interview with Lee Crymble, group CEO here.

The market maintained its more positive mood for the remainder of the year, but is yet to be convincing in terms of a proper market reversal. It’s not too much to shout about, but it’s something – it is part of the stabilisation process and downside is surely limited.

2025 was hard work, disappointing in parts, good in others but certainly not a disaster.
Also in 2025, Vinum Fine Wines celebrated 30 years since inception in Singapore.

The effects of three years of market downturn

There have been redundancies and business closures, some regrettable (Wine Treasury for example), some less so (no names!). There will have been a lot of recapitalising deals behind closed doors and all sorts of bail out arrangements made.

In the good times focus becomes fuzzy; optimism abounds, prices go up, new regions, producers and wines get added, price sensitivity weakens, inventories grow and new players join the party.

A lot of that fuzz has now been removed. FDs have sharpened their spreadsheets, the wings of buyers have been clipped, and a lot of the hot money has now gone cold and retreated.

The market is back to its bare bones, a purer form; wine is being bought by the drinkers, whether for now or the future, not by the speculators. Of course, there are still investors around, but their numbers have been decimated.

What’s in store for the year ahead, 2026

As the year of the snake draws to a close, the horse awaits. One of the snake’s characteristics is transition and I think that is what we have witnessed in the fine wine market.

Vitality, energy, movement, success and good fortune are traits of the horse, so here’s hoping for some of that. Or perhaps it’s a message we should all get down to William Hill!

It’s going to be tough again this year but not all doom and gloom.

I expect the market will be largely flat but there will be opportunities and plenty of great stock becoming available.

Interest rates have come down, and inflation is better than it was but the cost of living crisis is still crippling the middle ground. Wine is an obvious target when the purse strings are tightened.

Organically, our business in the last period has become increasingly top tier. Wealthier wine buyers are less impacted by day to day economies, and we have very good supplies of the finest wines!

Falling consumption of wine

There is much talk about lower wine consumption globally, especially amongst the younger generations, but this is fine wine we’re talking about and I’m not sure this applies to us, particularly concerning the young.

I have read much conflicting data on this, including that millennials are the heaviest drinking generation to date, that it’s confusing. I do believe alcohol consumption per capita is falling however, but the number of capita is rising, and the vineyard area of fine wine is not!

More Generally

I think the mass market for wine will continue to struggle as competition is so strong, costs are so hard to control and the threat from alternatives becomes ever greater.

Knowledge and the different avenues of acquiring that knowledge is widening. I know my own ‘Wine Society Tips’ WhatsApp group is up +100% in contributors this year – soon I’ll be selling subscriptions! But seriously, how many subscriptions can any one person afford or manage? The professional wine critic space feels very full to me, and I think there will be more, free content available soon.

I believe the no and low alcohol sector will continue to grow and will become more interesting.

It is notable this sector has been driven by demand from high end restaurants wanting to offer their clientele – some, presumably on GLP 1 and feeling a bit less boozy than usual – a better alternative to their pre-existing soft drink menu. A shake up of this sector has been long overdue.

I think the wine market will become more segmented and specialist this year. There is better quality wine coming in from more sources than ever before, more different grape varieties too. It is confusing to most and specialists will benefit.

Independent wine shops across the UK are doing well – they deserve to. In my experience they are better than in France and Italy, for example, perhaps benefitting for not having so much to offer locally.

What to look out for in 2026

There will continue to be great deals available this year as the consolidation of the market continues.
Do not expect any fireworks or any particularly exciting en primeur campaigns. But, as we discovered last year, there are always wines that ‘work’ – there will be again.

Matthew tells me there are some very exciting new offerings coming out of California; growers pushing the boundaries and challenging the old guard, new territories too. These will be coming to the UK in the next few months.

Vinum are planning a lot more events in the UK this year. We have a Solaia dinner next week and there are plans for more regular events, whether Paulée style or producer specific, but we are working on a few different themes. A calendar will be released soon.

We are ten years on from the fabulous 2016 vintage, so a look at various regions from that vintage will be part of those themes. We are always happy to field requests for new themes too, so please don’t be shy.

I hope not too many people are putting themselves through dry January. My approach is generally dry but with scattered showers, although there has been one report of localised flooding!

Terrible photo – but you get the drift!

Wishing you all well in 2026 and may you all be drinking well through the year of the horse (it’s a ‘fire’ horse too)!

Miles Davis, 16^th January 2026