Blog
Vinum Fine Wines Market Report March 2026
February Performance
It feels weird, bordering on wrong, to be writing this given the latest geopolitical shenanigans. But, whisper it, we had another fine time of it in the world of (fine) wine again last month. Turnover remained robust and the indices were largely in positive territory.
These numbers are probably explained by low offers being withdrawn or placed higher and some slightly better bids appearing but, either way, no one round here is complaining!
The Liv-ex Indices
Or perhaps the good folk of the wine buying community are so battle weary and inured to these constant upheavals – on top of three years of downturn – that they are paying these events no heed; for now, at least.
Obviously, if the Iran conflict is prolonged there will be a serious and unwanted impact on inflation and growth. Mortgage rates in the UK have already been increased as a reaction.
All eyes are on oil prices, and therefore inflation. I read an excellent (and alarming) piece on Substack this week about the conflict which claims the Russian economy breaks even with Russian Crude @ $59 a barrel – it is currently c.$97 – Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee at President Trump’s latest actions, and not for the first time!
It’s not just about oil, however. There are food and water shortages and, of course, all the appalling humanitarian consequences too. Please may it end as soon as possible.
Liv-ex Regional Indices
Burgundy and Rhone indices both slipped a tiny bit, the others here all enjoyed a positive performance. All these numbers, being less than 1% are largely insignificant, so, again, small adjustments are likely to be the causes, rather than seismic changes.
Our turnover was once more dominated by Burgundy, although down from last month’s whopping 80%.
It was interesting to note the following regions all troubled the scorers, but all at less than 0.1% (so not really!): Cuba, Pfalz, Rheingau and Umbria.
Burgundy trade was dominated by some big blocks of DRC and Mugnier into UK and European hands whilst, from Bordeaux, chunks of Lafite and Petit Mouton went east.
Italy had a strong month in terms of turnover with Tuscany towering over Piedmont. Champagne held steady and Rhone trading was again dominated by Rayas.
Chateau Rayas
Chateau Rayas is making big efforts to follow the distribution of their wines, to the extent they are writing the name of their distributors on the label – by hand, starting with the 2016 vintage, which is being released now/very soon.
Obviously, this must be a painstaking process and is superbly anti-technology – love it!
Wine in the Middle East, before the conflict
Despite the local religious beliefs and thereby the conservative society, demand for fine wine had been picking up in the region. An increasing number of ex-pats had been relocating there, attracted by the warm winters and the tax friendly incentives, but mainly the tax friendly incentives.
Before the recent troubles, the ex-pat population in the UAE had risen from 4 million in 2004 to c.11.3 million in 2024 and had recovered its pre-pandemic levels and more. It was growing fast, and for good reason – ironically (and sadly), safety was one of those reasons.
Before the troubles, the ex-pat British community in Dubai was estimated to be c. 240,000. There are also estimated to be c.50,000 French in the wider UAE. A healthy percentage of these folk will be earning a nice crust, some of whom will undoubtedly appreciate something half decent in their glass on a Friday night!
Before this conflict started we had identified this region as a growth prospect for fine wine. But for now, all bets are off.
The rise and rise of the ‘Super Seconds’ (and their right bank equivalents)
For a long time, we have known about the potential of the super seconds to deliver outstanding, chart-topping wines that are equal to, or perhaps better, than their more highly classified peers in certain vintages. Think Pichon Comtesse 1982, Palmer 1983, Lynch Bages 1989 or 1990, Pichon Baron 1990 to name a few.
Arguably, consistency has been missing over the years, but now this appears to have improved and evened out.
In the last ten to twenty years, we have witnessed massive investment in some of these ‘second line’ estates and the results are bearing fruit (pun intended) and the quality gap between ‘firsts’ and ‘seconds’ has been closing.
Reports from the recent ten year on tastings (of 2016) have confirmed this.
Montrose came to visit us this week, showing the 2015, 2016 and 2019 and calmly demonstrated this claim. My colleague, Matthew Hemming MW recently wrote “Chateau Montrose has been making 1st growth level wines since at least 2009”.
On the left bank Pichon Comtesse is another name that is (almost) equally lauded. Other names that pop up in the conversation include Lynch Bages, Pichon Baron, Palmer, Carmes Haut Brion, Smith Haut Lafitte.
The price differentials between the two groups are still massive and perhaps will be ever so, but at the risk of being boring, I think it’s worth saying again.
On the right bank, some of the names that are competing with the bigger guns in terms of quality, but are considerably cheaper are Canon, L’Eglise Clinet, Figeac, Troplong Mondot and Vieux Chateau Certan.
More about Bordeaux 2016
Matthew (Hemming MW, in case you need reminding!) has recently published his very interesting ten year on report, which you can see here. Remember – an expert panel of 21, including 11 MWs, tasting blind.
Here are my biggest takeaways and another couple of lifted lines:
- Confirmed, it’s a great vintage across the communes
- Be careful in the commune of Margaux and St. Emilion
- Lynch Bages came out top in Pauillac!
- Billy bargain no-brainers: Brane Cantenac, Haut Batailley, Langoa Barton, Ormes de Pez, Reserve de la Comtesse and Segla
- Money no object (i.e. best in show): Belair Monange, Cheval Blanc, Lafite, Lafleur, L’Eglise Client, Le Pin, Montrose, Mouton, Petrus, Trotanoy, VCC,
- Very sensible options: Canon, Carmes Haut Brion, Figeac, the Leovilles, Lynch Bages, Pichon Baron, Smith Haut Lafitte, St. Julien in general and Tertre Roteboeuf
- ‘In Matthew we trust’: Hosanna
“Pessac Leognan is not where you go for show ponies but, if you seek traditionally styled mid-weight Bordeaux to cellar with confidence, then 2016 presents a wealth of options and many of them are bargains.”
“…jaw-dropping quality of Chateau Les Ormes de Pez, that had the audacity to finish in our overall top 10 and that I scored 96/100” – now £150 per 6 IB, if you can find it.
A tiny bit more on Bordeaux!
Probably the most used wine website in the world, Wine-Searcher, reported that searches for Bordeaux wines in the US have experienced a huge surge, particularly for Lafite Rothschild.
Bordeaux accounts for four out of the top five searched for wines, Dom Perignon being the outlier, and fifteen out of the top twenty.
You can read the full article here.
Talking US (and tariffs)
I received this air freight quote to Montana below, for about 170 bottles with a value of c.£50k. We all know about the 15% levy, but when you see it like this, it really does make you sit up straight. God bless America!
Isn’t it also quite extraordinary that the President’s name appears before the words Trade Tariff?
Final words
As we sit and watch the latest horrors unfolding in the Middle East, we can but wonder what is around the corner. So far, we have not felt a pull back from wine buyers in this latest episode, but it’s early days, and fingers are crossed.
We even sold more Yquem ’23 – released this week – than we ever anticipated.
Miles Davis, reporting from the South of England, 12th March 2026